How to pick games

2017-02-20 20:20:25 by T4N
News Gambling Dustin Johnson 

Home -> Forums -> Instant ("Scratch-Off") Games -> How to pick games How to pick games 6 replies. Last post 43 minutes ago by Tatototman65 . Page 1 of 1 Offline Posted: January 11, 2017, 1:29 pm - IP Logged Hey guys, I am wondering if you guys can help me out with trying to pick games... and figure out what I could be doing wrong. My state is Kentucky and I will go in and calculate the total number of winning tickets left and calculate the total prize money left, then I can find the average prize for a game. Then I can use the odds of winning to calculate the expected value of a lottery ticket bought. Right now the only game I see that has an expected value greater than the purchase price is Cash King (which stopped selling on December 31st). I realize the odds of winning can change, but Im figuring on average the odds of winning will remain pretty much unchanged. Plus as far as I can tell, Kentucky doesnt display sales numbers anywhere for individual games. But back to the game I am talking about, Cash King, there is no top prizes remaining. And when I looked at the last time ScratchSmarter posted the games to play for Kentucky, Cash King didnt make the list. So I am wondering if there is something I am not considering, or is this still a good game to play, it's just unlikely I would win a big prize. Posted: January 14, 2017, 3:42 pm - IP Logged Quote: Originally posted by DrSayre on January 11, 2017 Hey guys, I am wondering if you guys can help me out with trying to pick games... and figure out what I could be doing wrong. My state is Kentucky and I will go in and calculate the total number of winning tickets left and calculate the total prize money left, then I can find the average prize for a game. Then I can use the odds of winning to calculate the expected value of a lottery ticket bought. Right now the only game I see that has an expected value greater than the purchase price is Cash King (which stopped selling on December 31st). I realize the odds of winning can change, but Im figuring on average the odds of winning will remain pretty much unchanged. Plus as far as I can tell, Kentucky doesnt display sales numbers anywhere for individual games. But back to the game I am talking about, Cash King, there is no top prizes remaining. And when I looked at the last time ScratchSmarter posted the games to play for Kentucky, Cash King didnt make the list. So I am wondering if there is something I am not considering, or is this still a good game to play, it's just unlikely I would win a big prize. The ODDS are a long shot no matter which Scratch Off game you play, so Stop Over Thinking this process. It is hard to come up with a Strategy for purchasing Scratch Off tickets. There is no way to anticipate how many winning tickets are on any particular roll in any particular retailer, or what the monetary value might be. Winning at Scratch Off games is random luck . Don't waste your bankroll . Buy one ticket at a time and hope for the best . You would probably do better to spend your money on lottery games where you can apply some strategy , like Pick 3/4 . You have a better chance of winning these games >>> Pick 3/4 . Posted: January 15, 2017, 12:04 pm - IP Logged Quote: Originally posted by DrSayre on January 11, 2017 Hey guys, I am wondering if you guys can help me out with trying to pick games... and figure out what I could be doing wrong. My state is Kentucky and I will go in and calculate the total number of winning tickets left and calculate the total prize money left, then I can find the average prize for a game. Then I can use the odds of winning to calculate the expected value of a lottery ticket bought. Right now the only game I see that has an expected value greater than the purchase price is Cash King (which stopped selling on December 31st). I realize the odds of winning can change, but Im figuring on average the odds of winning will remain pretty much unchanged. Plus as far as I can tell, Kentucky doesnt display sales numbers anywhere for individual games. But back to the game I am talking about, Cash King, there is no top prizes remaining. And when I looked at the last time ScratchSmarter posted the games to play for Kentucky, Cash King didnt make the list. So I am wondering if there is something I am not considering, or is this still a good game to play, it's just unlikely I would win a big prize. Read the Florida thread on how those guys pick games. They buy A LOT of tix, and a couple have hit big. But they pick from book numbers that they think hold the big prizes. Very entertaining. CAN'T WIN IF YOU'RE NOT IN A DOLLAR AND A DREAM (OR $2) Posted: January 30, 2017, 12:43 pm - IP Logged Cash King had the 'last day to buy' = 12/31. We disagree with others on this thread. There ARE VERY SPECIFIC calculations you can use to increase your odds of winning - specifically a top prize. LUCK IS NOT ENOUGH- with some simple rules, you can increase your chances of winning. At ScratchSmarter, we calculate it very simply as: Proportion of Top prizes Remaining vs Proportion of Total Tickets sold. Google ScratchSmarter and to find our URL. (I've been blocked by adding my link in any threads). On our home pages, you'll find a slide bar tool that allows you to see how a FACTOR calculation applies based on these proportions. It is EXA CTLY like counting cards in blackjack. The challenge with counting cards in Black jack is that you have to sit & work the table for a while & risk getting caught. When counting scratch off games, the hard part is gathering the data & scrubbing it for errors. That's what ScratchSmarter does. In general there are 4 high level, successful strategies at buying tickets: 1) analyze across all games where the proportion of top prizes vs all tickets sold is highest & buy only the very best game 2) analyze the same values across only the games within a price point and only but the best game 3) buy tickets based on overall odds 4) buy tickets only based on top prizes remaining Notice that none of these strategies have the potential $ amount involved in the calculations. That is where instant games mess you because you start to look at the amount of the prizes instead of the odds. This is the same reason sales go up with the Powerball is over $100 million - people don't look at the odds, they look at the payout. In the four strategies above, #1 and #2 are the best approaches, then #3. As for # 3 & #4 - we provide these reports, but it's the worst possible strategy because is just a choice based on one data point. However, #4 is good because you would never play a game with NO top prizes remaining. So, we bake that data point into strategies #1 and #2 above. When looking to increase your odds - you have to calculate based completely on odds. The $$ value has NOTHING to do with a calculation. Now its time for you to start to ScratchSmarter Posted: January 30, 2017, 1:35 pm - IP Logged The one thing so many posters seem to overlook is that your calculations mean nothing when the prizes you are hoping to win are sitting in a batch of books on a shelf in the lotto warehouse somewhere never to be won by anyone. Pa has closed so many games with tons of low range prizes left like 1k and up along with multiple million dollar top prizes left no one ever hit. That means they sold all the crap, kept the big winners and made a huge profit. Many states do this. So to think your calculations are correct and all these tickets are actually available for purchase many be a suprise to see they most likely are not. ♠♣♥♦= $$$$ Posted: January 30, 2017, 3:43 pm - IP Logged Quote: Originally posted by Chris$ on January 30, 2017 The one thing so many posters seem to overlook is that your calculations mean nothing when the prizes you are hoping to win are sitting in a batch of books on a shelf in the lotto warehouse somewhere never to be won by anyone. Pa has closed so many games with tons of low range prizes left like 1k and up along with multiple million dollar top prizes left no one ever hit. That means they sold all the crap, kept the big winners and made a huge profit. Many states do this. So to think your calculations are correct and all these tickets are actually available for purchase many be a suprise to see they most likely are not. Chris$ - you're correct. Almost every state pulls games. It's the nature of the business & for some states, pulling games is a KEY way that they increase the profitability of their business. I see it in PA every week and my local retailer is annoyed with me always asking for the best games - they simply say 'that games closed'. In reality it means - he doesn't have that game for sale anymore. It doesn't mean someone else in PA doesn't still have that game for sale. And yes - more than likely, the big winning tickets are in a warehouse waiting to be destroyed - because the state made enough of a return on that game. There is no law in any state to say they HAVE to sell every ticket. Remember, the lottery exists to MAKE money, not to distribute winnings. But, you're incorrect about our formula. Mathematically our equations ARE correct. In fact, our formula is a relatively simple formula that's used in card counting at blackjack tables every day. The challenge with applying it to scratch off games is the difficulty in gathering all of the data from all the website pages to run the equation. That's where ScratchSmarter excels. Now, to be fair to everyone, you're right in stating that this doesn't mean that every top game is available for purchase everywhere. The distribution of games from the printer & warehouse, and the number of retail locations are all MAJOR factors to instant games. What our formula does is allow you to focus your $$ on the games that mathematically have significantly better odds of winning a top prize. (I personally just won't play a game unless its in the top 4 spots of our report.) If I can't find a game with a great "SmartFactor", I just won't play. Unfortunately, the games with the very top rating from ScratchSmarter are ALSO the games that the lottery corporations tend to pull, because they've made their Return on Investment and they don't WANT to pay out the top prizes if they don't have to. So, it ends up being a race to find the very best games that the retailers still have for sale before the lotteries pull the games. Now, to be fair to everyone, we have to expand this discussion, because even though a lot of states pull games early, almost every state allows the sales of tickets where there are no top prizes remaining (what we call "DEAD" Games) . In other words, its a 'buyer beware' situation when buying scratch off tickets and we try to emphasize this fact more than any other when trying to educate people about playing scratch off tickets. ScratchSmarter takes the prizes remaining data into account immediately in every one of our reports. Games with no top prizes remaining are marked RED (DO NOT PLAY) in our reports. Our goal is to keep our customers from wasting their money on games where they are guaranteed to NEVER win a top prize, because they've already been awarded. So, when buying scratch off games, your options are: 1) don't play (and never win) 2) buy tickets with no analysis & let lady luck fall where she falls. People win with this strategy every week. But a lot more people lose with this strategy than win with it. 3) buy g ames based on basic information - using a single data point (like no prizes remaining / over all odds) - this is a good step towards not wasting your money but doesn't really help you chase the best games. 4) analyze with an advanced algorithm or formula - This strategy lets you focus your $$ on the games with the VERY BEST chances of winning a top prize. Just know that, no matter what strategy you choose, the lotteries are out to make money and they will pull games, leave top prizes unawarded and sell tickets that don't have any top prizes. They'll do whatever then can, within the law, to make as much $$ as possible. Scratch off players should be armed with as much information as possible to combat their tactics. You can improve you luck by doing some analysis, by stop buying "DEAD" games, and by putting on your running shoes to race to find the very best games before the get pulled. Good luck. Now its time for you to start to ScratchSmarter

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How to pick games

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